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Industry factsMay 8, 20264 min read

The 4-hour recovery myth: what the data actually shows

Brokers say recovery takes ~4 hours. The real distribution is much uglier.

The myth

Survey data has long pegged the average broker-led recovery scramble at 4–6 hours. That number is misleading because the average hides a fat tail.

The reality

Our pre-launch survey of 142 brokers showed:

  • Median time to first vetted cap accept: 3h 50m
  • 75th percentile: 7h 10m
  • 95th percentile: 18+ hours

The 95th-percentile cases — the truly bad scrambles — are where lanes die. A shipper cancels, a relationship breaks, a contract is on the line.

Implication

The metric to drive isn't the median — it's the 95th percentile. Cutting the worst-case scramble to under 60 minutes is what builds shipper trust over time.

On the road

CapMates is the 911 of freight — same-day pay, vetted caps, fair rates.

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